こんにちは。
雨が降ったりやんだりしていますね。これから夏までジメジメとした気候になりそうです。
今回は「函館スプリントS」。波乱必至の別定戦ですが、果たしてどうなるでしょうか。
それでは、今回もよろしくお願いします。
◆ コース・出走馬紹介
・コース説明
まず最初は、函館スプリントSについて説明します。
函館スプリントS（GⅢ） 函館競馬場 1,200m 芝/右 1着賞金：4,100万
函館競馬場で行われる1,200mの3歳、古馬混合戦です。3歳馬も出走が可能で斤量が軽い分有利に考えられがちですが、過去10年は古馬優勢。しかし今回は桜花賞で3着のナムラクレアが50kgで出走と好走の期待が高まっています。
スタートは向こう正面のポケット地点から。1ターンでの決着となり、ポジションを取れない馬が能力を出し切れず負けるケースも少なくない。またスタートから4コーナーまでは緩やかな上り、以降はゴールまで下りとなっている。
最後の直線は約260ｍ。直線が短い分だけ距離ロスが響く仕様のため勝負所でいかに良いポジションに付けているかが鍵。そうなれば当然前目で運ぶ馬が馬券に絡む可能性が高く、差しも絡んでいますがやはり前の馬が有利に思われます。
・出走馬紹介
次に出走馬の紹介です。人気順ではなく、馬番順で記載します。
| 馬番 | 馬名 | 性齢 | 負担重量 | 騎手 | ポイント | |
| 1枠 | 1 2 | プルパレイ キャプテンドレイク | 牡3 牡5 | 52.0 56.0 | M.デムーロ 藤岡 康太 | マイルから短縮。巻き返し狙う 連勝ストップ。相手強化で苦戦 |
| 2枠 | 3 4 | ライトオンキュー キルロード | 牡7 騸7 | 58.0 57.0 | 古川 吉洋 菊沢 ⼀樹 | タイム差少ないも。トップ斤量 前走激走。再度期待 |
| 3枠 | 5 6 | タイセイアベニール シゲルピンクルビー | 牡7 牝4 | 56.0 54.0 | 鮫島 克駿 和⽥ ⻯⼆ | 決めてに欠ける。掲示板迄 前走完勝。久々の重賞制覇へ |
| 4枠 | 7 8 | ナムラクレア ヴェントヴォーチェ | 牝3 牡5 | 50.0 56.0 | 浜中 俊 ⻄村 淳也 | 桜花賞3着馬。斤量も魅力 押し強烈。函館も〇 |
| 5枠 | 9 10 | ボンセルヴィーソ ペプチドバンブー | 牡8 牡7 | 56.0 56.0 | 池添 謙⼀ 松⽥ ⼤作 | 距離短縮も。6F戦が合えば 再度の芝。一発狙う |
| 6枠 | 11 12 | ジュビリーヘッド ファーストフォリオ | 牡5 牝5 | 56.0 54.0 | 横⼭ 和⽣ 武 豊 | 安定感有。重賞舞台どうか きっかけあれば。名手に託す |
| 7枠 | 13 14 | ビアンフェ ローレルアイリス | 騸5 牝5 | 57.0 54.0 | 藤岡 佑介 川⼜ 賢治 | 先手必勝。逃げ込み図る 大敗中。流れに乗って穴まで |
| 8枠 | 16 17 | ダイメイフジ レイハリア | 牡8 牝4 | 57.0 54.0 | 菱⽥ 裕⼆ 松岡 正海 | 暗中模索。前崩れでどうか 近走不調。立て直せれば |
3歳以上の別定戦のため、50.0kg～58.0kgでの出走となります。
負担重量に大きく開きが生じる今回、1番人気になりそうなのは今年の桜花賞3着馬ナムラクレア。桜花用は「ここでも距離が足りるのか」といったレースで本来はスプリンター、メンバーで最も軽い斤量も追い風に好走が期待されています。
それに続くのが去年の覇者ビアンフェ、前走鞍馬Sで完勝したシゲルピンクルビー、L競走を制し満を持しての重賞参戦ヴェントヴォーチェ、巻き返し期待のプルパレイなどとなっています。
後述するデータを、こちらの出馬表と照らし合わせながら皆さんも予想を立ててみてください。
◆ 様々な傾向
では次に、過去10年の傾向を見てみましょう。
・人気別の着順
まず最初に、人気別の着順を見てみましょう。
| | 1着 | 2着 | 3着 | 着外 | 勝率 | 複勝率 |
| 1番人気 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | .100 | .500 |
| 2番人気 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | .100 | .300 |
| 3番人気 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | .200 | .400 |
| 4～9番人気 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 46 | .083 | .200 |
| 10番人気以下 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 47 | .019 | .113 |
勝利に関しては波乱のレースと言えるでしょう。
一番優勝しているのが4～9番人気となっており、単勝で当てるのが非常に難解なレースであると言えます。複勝率に関しては上位人気がある程度安定していますが、それでも突出した数字ではないので総合して波乱の起きやすいレースだと思います。
因みに上位人気3頭で決まったことは過去に一度もなく、逆に1番人気～3番人気がすべて馬券外の年が2回存在します。このように難しいレースのため、好きな馬から割り切って買うのが良いと思います。
・枠の相性
枠別の成績はこのようになっています。
| | 1着 | 2着 | 3着 | 着外 | 勝率 | 複勝率 |
| 1枠 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | .063 | .250 |
| 2枠 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .063 | .125 |
| 3枠 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | .125 | .250 |
| 4枠 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | .000 | .176 |
| 5枠 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .056 | .167 |
| 6枠 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .053 | .158 |
| 7枠 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .150 | .250 |
| 8枠 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 | .053 | .316 |
外枠が他に比べ良い成績を残していますね。
これは1ターンで決着する点、1,200mと前残りで決まることが多い点、最後の直線で内にいては進路が開けないまま終わってしまう点などが理由として考えられます。
最後の直線が約260mと非常に短いため、それを見越した位置取りがやはり重要でしょう。
・脚質
おおよその脚質傾向はこのような感じです。
| | 1着 | 2着 | 3着 |
| 逃げ | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 先行 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 差し | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 追込 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
※ 追込は最終コーナー通過が後方の馬を適用しています。
逃げ～先行が決まりやすい傾向にあるようです。
やはり短距離戦ということで前が強い傾向があります。しかし決して後ろが届かないという訳でもなく、展開やメンバー構成次第では後方強襲の馬が優勝する可能性もあります。
因みに人気どころで考えるとビアンフェは逃げ、ナムラクレア、ヴェントヴォーチェ、シゲルピンクルビーは先行、プルパレイは差しとなっているので、どんな展開になっても上位人気の何かしらは入着するんじゃないかな、と思っています。
・臨戦過程など
特に決まった流れは無く本当に色々な路線からの参戦が多くなっています。しかし調べて面白かったのは10年で3勝している3歳馬の内2頭が桜花賞から参戦していることです。この時の勝ち馬は共に斤量50kgでの優勝を飾っているので、ナムラクレアがこのルートなのかなと。
しかし馬齢で見た際に優勝が多いのは古馬なので、3歳で斤量が軽いからと闇雲に買うのはあまりオススメできません。また近10年は古馬牝馬の優勝がないのも大きな特徴です。
血統に関してはこのレース去年2着一昨年1着のロードカナロア産駒に注目してみたいと考えています。対象馬はキルロード、ジュビリーヘッド、レイハリア、キャプテンドレイク、ペプチドバンブーの5頭となっています。
◆ 結論
予想として選んだ馬が以下になります。（人気は 06/12 01:45時点）
・ビアンフェ 3番人気
・シゲルピンクルビー 4番人気
・キルロード 6番人気
・レイハリア 8番人気
このようになりました。ゲートが非常に大事になり、そこであっ、となる可能性もあります。
そして以下が最終的な印となります。
「昨年は的中率が約10.5％だった」事実も上手く活用していただき、ご自身の予想の一助としてくだされば幸いです。（ブログ予想：今年度成績：1勝21敗）
買い方の想定としては、3連複5頭BOXで10点勝負となります。（今年はこれで固定します！）
○ ナムラクレア 1番人気
▲ キルロード 6番人気
△ ビアンフェ 3番人気
△ レイハリア 8番人気
本命はシゲルピンクルビー。純粋に応援したい1頭で、前走のような競馬ができれば昨年負けていても巻き返せると思い選びました。対抗はナムラクレアで、桜花賞3着の実績に本来は短距離型と思うので斤量の軽さも手伝い上位なのではと思いました。
後は前走激走のイメージが強いもそこまでのレースが悲観するような内容ではなかったキルロード、昨年の覇者ビアンフェ、近2走が悪いも素質は十分に示しているレイハリアとなりました。
以上です。接戦となりそうですが、果たしてどうなるでしょうか。
◆ まとめ
いかがだったでしょうか。使えそうだと思った情報だけ活用してください。
久々に重賞のない土曜日でしたね。ゆっくりしていたように思いますが夏競馬は始まったばかり。秋に向けて台頭してくる馬や新馬を見つつ、のんびりやっていきましょう。
もし何かありましたらコメントいただければお返事しますので、お気軽にどうぞ。
今回は以上となります。最後まで読んでいただきありがとうございました。
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Kudos!